july 2002 5.5

Regions of increased probability of magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes as on July 1, 2002. The space union of all circles (grey and yellow) is the area analysed by the M8S algorithm. Yellow circles indicate the alarm area. Two earthquakes with magnitude 5.5 ≤ M_max < 6.0 happened inside the area of investigation of M8S algorithm in the second half of 2002:

Date and Time	Lat	Lon	Depth	Mmax	Location
2002/09/06 01:21	38.38	13.70	5	5.9	About 50km NE of Palermo
2002/10/31 10:32	41.79	14.87	10	5.9	About 30km NE of Campobasso

Both events are missed in the Test of the M8S algorithm aimed at magnitude M5.5+ earthquakes. Notes:

• The catalogue completeness in space and time progresses, the M8S algorithm operates with a variable number of CI’s and, as a consequence, the area of prediction changes in time. At the present, the level of completeness of the catalogue has practically stabilised.
• The M8S algorithm predictions apply to seismogenic areas only and by no means imply equal probability of strong earthquakes in seismic and aseismic territories inside circles of investigation.