The stabilised M8 (M8S) predictions for Italy

The M8S algorithm is a new spatially stabilised scheme of the M8 algorithm application. It accounts for natural distribution of seismic activity, eliminates subjectivity in positioning the circles of investigation, CI’s, and provides additional stability of predictions. In Italy the experimental testing aims at prediction of earthquakes in the three consequent magnitude ranges – M6.5+, M6.0+, and M5.5+ – in the CI’s of 192-km, 138-km, and 106-km radius correspondingly. To guarantee unique reproducible outcome, we update the catalogue each half-year in IEPT&MG RAS, Moscow and DST University of Trieste independently.

The retroactive simulation of forward prediction in 1972-2001 performed by M8S algorithm justifies starting our real-time experiment: Twelve out of eighteen large earthquakes with magnitudes from 5.5 to 7.0 are predicted by issuing about 34-39% of the space-time volume of alarm.

Since 2002 the M8S algorithm is applied for real-time monitoring of Italian seismicity.

The list of target events is available.

Retrospective simulation of prediction, 1972-2001
M6.5+ M6.0+ M5.5+
Real-time predictions, 2002 – 2014

Real-time predictions, 2015 – till present (access restricted)
M6.5+ M6.0+ M5.5+

The M8 algorithm