july 2004 5.5

Regions of increased probability of magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes as on July 1, 2004 (subject to update on 1, January 2005). The space union of all circles (grey and yellow) is the area analysed by the M8S algorithm. Yellow circles indicate the alarm area. Two earthquakes with magnitude 5.5 ≤ M_max < 6.0 happened inside the area of investigation of M8S algorithm in the second half of 2004:

Date and Time	Lat	Lon	Depth	Mmax	Location
2004/07/12 13:04	46.30	13.64	7	5.7	Slovenia
2004/11/24 22:59	45.62	10.55	20	5.5	Garda lake, Northern Italy

First event is missed and second is predicted in the Test of the M8S algorithm aimed at magnitude M5.5+ earthquakes. Notes:

• One earthquake with magnitude M_max=5.4 (2004/11/25, 43.21�N, 15.39�) happened inside the area of M8S algorithm alarm for M5.5+.
• The catalogue completeness in space and time progresses, the M8S algorithm operates with a variable number of CI’s and, as a consequence, the area of prediction changes in time. At the present, the level of completeness of the catalogue has practically stabilised.
• The M8S algorithm predictions apply to seismogenic areas only and by no means imply equal probability of strong earthquakes in seismic and aseismic territories inside circles of investigation.