Regions of increased probability of magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes as on July 1, 2006 (subject to update on January 1, 2007). The space union of all circles (grey and yellow) is the area analysed by the M8S algorithm. Yellow circles indicate the alarm area. No earthquakes with magnitude 6.5 ≤ Mmax < 7.0 happened inside the area of investigation of M8S algorithm in July 2006 – December 2006. Notes:
  • The catalogue completeness in space and time progresses, the M8S algorithm operates with a variable number of CI’s and, as a consequence, the area of prediction changes in time. At the present, the level of completeness of the catalogue has practically stabilised.
  • The M8S algorithm predictions apply to seismogenic areas only and by no means imply equal probability of strong earthquakes in seismic and aseismic territories inside circles of investigation.