The space union of all circles (grey and yellow) is the area analysed by the M8S algorithm. Yellow indicate the area of increased probability of M6.5+ earthquakes. The Friuli earthquake has the following parameters: Date 1976.05.06, latitude 46.23°N, longitude 13.13°E, depth 12 km, Mmax=6.5. The Irpinia earthquake has the following parameters: Date 1980.11.23, latitude 40.85°N, longitude 15.28°E, depth 18 km, Mmax=6.7. Both of them are inside the area of alarm.


The catalogue completeness in space and time progresses, the M8S algorithm operates with a variable number of CI’s and, as a consequence, the area of prediction changes in time. At the present, the level of completeness of the catalogue has practically stabilised. The M8S algorithm predictions apply to seismogenic areas only and by no means imply equal probability of strong earthquakes in seismic and aseismic territories inside circles of investigation.