january 2009 6.0

Regions of increased probability of magnitude 6.0+ earthquakes as on January 1, 2009 (subject to update on July 1, 2009). The space union of all circles (grey and yellow) is the area analysed by the M8S algorithm. Yellow circles indicate the alarm area. One earthquake with magnitude 6.0 ≤ Mmax < 6.5 happened inside the area of investigation of M8S algorithm in January 2009 – June 2009:
Date and Time Lat Lon Depth Mmax Location
2009/04/06 1:32 42.33 13.33 8 6.3 Aquila, Central Italy
The event is missed in the Test of the M8S algorithm aimed at magnitude M6.0+ earthquakes. Notes:
  • The catalogue completeness in space and time progresses, the M8S algorithm operates with a variable number of CI’s and, as a consequence, the area of prediction changes in time. At the present, the level of completeness of the catalogue has practically stabilised.
  • The M8S algorithm predictions apply to seismogenic areas only and by no means imply equal probability of strong earthquakes in seismic and aseismic territories inside circles of investigation.