The space union of all circles (grey and yellow) is the area analysed by the M8S algorithm. Yellow indicate the area of increased probability of M6.0+ earthquakes. The Bovec earthquake has the following parameters: Date 1998.04.12, latitude 46.24°N, longitude 13.65°E, depth 10 km, magnitude Mmax=6.0. Its epicentre is inside the area of alarm. On the contrary, the Assisi earthquake with the date 1997.09.26, latitude 43.08°N, longitude 12.81°E, depth 10 km, and magnitude Mmax=6.4 falls outside the alarm area. Notes:
  • The Assisi earthquake (1997.09.26, 43.08°N, 12.81°E, Mmax=6.4) which was missed in M6.0+ test falls inside the alarm area of M5.5+ test.
  • The catalogue completeness in space and time progresses, the M8S algorithm operates with a variable number of CI’s and, as a consequence, the area of prediction changes in time. At the present, the level of completeness of the catalogue has practically stabilised.
  • The M8S algorithm predictions refer to seismogenic areas only and by no means imply equal probability of strong earthquakes in seismic and aseismic territories inside circles of investigation.