Regions of increased probability of magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes as on January 1, 2002. The space union of all circles (grey and yellow) is the area analyzed by the M8S algorithm. Yellow indicate the alarm area. No earthquakes with magnitude 6.5 ≤ Mmax < 7.0 happened inside the area of investigation of M8S algorithm in January-June 2002. Notes:
  • The catalogue completeness in space and time progresses, the M8S algorithm operates with a variable number of CI’s and, as a consequence, the area of prediction changes in time. At the present, the level of completeness of the catalogue has practically stabilized.
  • The M8S algorithm predictions apply to seismogenic areas only and by no means imply equal probability of strong earthquakes in seismic and aseismic territories inside circles of investigation.