|
Date and Time |
Lat |
Lon |
Depth |
Magnitudes (mb, MS) |
Prediction |
|
|
2008/02/20 8:08 |
2.768 |
95.964 |
26 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
M8-only |
|
2008/05/12 6:28 |
31.002 |
103.322 |
19 |
6.9 |
8.1 |
Failure-to-predict |
January 10, 2008
According to the USGS/NEIC on-line database in the first half of 2008 there are two earthquakes that belong either to M8.0+ or M7.5+ –
According to the 2008b Update of the M8-MSc predictions dated Thursday, –
The first event falls within the limits of M8 TIPs for M7.5+ in CI# 31-33 (NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA) scoring a success to overall statistics of the first approximation and, in the absence of reduced area of alert, a failure-to-predict to that of the second one.
The second event, the disastrous Wencheng (Sichuan, China) earthquake, was not predicted in our Test: its epicenter hits CIs ## 250 (SICHUAN, CHINA) and 253 (YUNNAN, CHINA) in testing aimed at M8.0+ and is too far from CIs in testing aimed at M7.5+.