January 10, 2008

According to the USGS/NEIC on-line database in the first half of 2008 there are two earthquakes that belong either to M8.0+ or M7.5+ –

Date and Time

Lat

Lon

Depth

Magnitudes (mb, MS)

Prediction

2008/02/20 8:08

2.768

95.964

26

6.5

7.5

M8-only

2008/05/12 6:28

31.002

103.322

19

6.9

8.1

Failure-to-predict

According to the 2008b Update of the M8-MSc predictions dated Thursday, – The first event falls within the limits of M8 TIPs for M7.5+ in CI# 31-33 (NORTHERN SUMATERA, INDONESIA) scoring a success to overall statistics of the first approximation and, in the absence of reduced area of alert, a failure-to-predict to that of the second one. The second event, the disastrous Wencheng (Sichuan, China) earthquake, was not predicted in our Test: its epicenter hits CIs ## 250 (SICHUAN, CHINA) and 253 (YUNNAN, CHINA) in testing aimed at M8.0+ and is too far from CIs in testing aimed at M7.5+.