Source: OXFORD Academic
The journal Geophysical Journal International (Oxford Academic) published an article by a team of authors, including employees of ITPZ RAS Earthquake productivity law, P. N. Shebalin, C. Narteau, S. V. Baranov
One of the postulates of almost all models of the seismic regime and aftershock sequences, including the well-known ETAS model, has so far been the assumption that earthquakes of the same strength initiate approximately the same number of dependent events (aftershocks). The article shows that this assumption is incorrect. This is probably what leads to overestimated seismic hazard estimates based on such models. The spread in the number of triggered events is very large. But, as it turned out, it is natural and this number steadily obeys, similar to the magnitude of an earthquake, an exponential distribution, if the calculation is carried out in the range of magnitudes of a certain width relative to the magnitude of the initiating earthquake. We called this regularity the law of earthquake productivity. A synthetic catalog based on the ETAS-e model, which includes the law of productivity in comparison with ETAS, reproduces a realistic distribution of productivity, in contrast to the ETAS model, which uses the Poisson distribution for productivity.